2021Â ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST #7
Hello, everyone. Just to inform you, my seventh outlook for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season is now released! You can check out my video presentation of my sixth 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook on YouTube by clicking the "YouTube" button below! Thank You!
LENGTH OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
HOW LONG DOES THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON LAST?
The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30. However, tropical cylcones can form well outside of this time frame!
The Latest Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
How do our current ocean temperatures compare to average?
Oceanic regions such as the Gulf Of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, the Sub-Tropics, and just off the coast of West Africa (Senegal, Guinea, etc.) all have warmer than normal ocean temperatures. These warmer than normal ocean temperatures could potentially spark more tropical activity now through November!
NINO 3.4 Region Predictions
Which ENSO Phase Are We Headed Towards?
We Are currently in an ENSO Neutral phase, with the potential of heading towards a La Nina Phase during the second half of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season, potentially increasing hurricane activity even more!
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
How Much Tropical Cyclone Heat & Energy is Available?
Currently, across the Caribbean Sea, there is a moderate amount tropical cyclone heat available. In the Gulf of Mexico, there is low to moderate tropical cyclone heat available.
Atlantic Ocean Wind Shear Values
How much wind shear is present across the Atlantic Ocean currently?
Wind Shear values are high currently, with patches of low shear between the Southeast coast and the Caribbean, as this is to be expected for this time for year. This is currently suppressing hurricane activity. Overall, wind shear values will be decreasing over the next couple months across the Atlantic Ocean, potentially increasing hurricane activity.
Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures
How warm are the ocean temperatures currently?
Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico & The Caribbean Sea extending towards or just south of the Main Development Region (MDR) are between 75 degrees Fahrenheit and 85 degrees Fahrenheit. The MDR is where most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic later in the hurricane season. However, in the first half of the hurricane season, we can see more tropical entities form closer to the U.S.
Saharan air Layer (SAL) In Atlantic Ocean
How much Saharan Dust is there currently?
There is little to no Saharan Dust in the Gulf of Mexico currently, as well as in the Caribbean Sea, causing conditions to be more favorable for tropical activity. However, in the MDR region in the tropical Atlantic, there is more Saharan dust, limiting tropical activity currently.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Index
How favorable are the conditions to form a tropical cyclone?
The Atlantic Ocean can't support tropical activity currently, only the coastlines of
Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Southern Bahamas have some red & orange shading, but the tropical system would still dissipate due to land interaction.
Where Do Tropical Cyclones Usually Form and Track- June
For the month of June, where to tropical cyclones usually develop and where do they usually track towards?
For the month of June, tropical cyclone formation primarily stays near the East Coast, Gulf Of Mexico, or The Caribbean Sea.
Usual Tropical Cyclone Activity Throughout the Hurricane Season
When do we generally see the most and the least amount of tropical cyclones?
The peak of tropical activity is from Late August to Early October.
On the opposite scale, we generally see the least amount of tropical activity from Late December through Late March.